Wildland Fire Outlook – May through August 2012

The Predictive Services group issued their first major outlook for the season yesterday, it can be found here: http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

Excerpts from the report:

National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook

National Interagency Fire Center

Predictive Services

Issued: May 1, 2012

Next Issue: June 1, 2012

Wildland Fire Outlook – May through August 2012
The May through August 2012 significant fire potential outlooks are shown below. The primary factors influencing these outlooks are:

El Niño/Southern Oscillation:

Conditions in the equatorial Pacific continue to trend toward neutral conditions with the possibility of entering an El Niño phase by early summer. However, timing remains very uncertain.

Drought:
The abnormally dry winter for most of the western U.S. continued the severe to exceptional drought from last year across most of western Texas, New Mexico and Arizona, with rapidly developing drought conditions across California, Nevada, Utah and Colorado. Severe to exceptional drought persisted in the southeastern U.S. across Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and southern Alabama. Drought has continued or developed over the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi regions and along the eastern seaboard from North Carolina to Maine.

Fuel Conditions:
La Niña conditions that extended into the fall and winter had a significant effect on fuels conditions across the U.S. Abundant fine fuels stretching across the south central U.S. into New Mexico early last year led to significant fires much earlier than normal. This year, in contrast, has seen greatly reduced fine fuel availability largely due to the extremely dry conditions that persisted through the winter. Carryover fuels from last year remain across the Great Basin and the northern and central Plains. Lack of significant snowfall at lower elevations in these areas left an abundance of standing grasses, making them available for this fire season.

Note: Significant fire potential is defined as the likelihood that a wildland fire event will require mobilization of additional resources from outside the area in which the fire situation originates

For questions about this outlook please contact the National Interagency Fire Center at (208) 387-5050.